A Dynamic Calculus of Voting
نویسندگان
چکیده
We construct a decision-theoretic model of turnout, in which individuals maximize their subjective expected utility in a context of repeated elections. In the model a nonnegative signaling motivation to vote exists for all citizens, regardless of their ideology or beliefs about the closeness of the election, and is proportional to a citizen's external efficacy, patience, and electoral pessimism. We find tentative support for all three effects in an empirical model of turnout using NES data (1976-1988). This paper suggests that the signaling motivation may play a role in a citizen’s decision to vote.
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